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Survivor: Second Chances

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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Nov 12, '15, 9:56 am

Ali wrote:What Savage makes abundantly clear in his two performances, and one of the reasons I can't stand him, is that he is completely unwilling to bend from his alliance. Through hell or high water, he has his group, he sticks to it, and anyone against it is essentially the devil. And because of that, people were wary to make a move against him. I think the strategy of a lot of people might have been to placate Savage and let him dig his own grave by making enemies, then drag him to the Final 3 as a goat.


Yeah I can see this, although I wouldn't see this as a character flaw of Savage's as so many other people online seem to. It feels like he has a hard time separating the game from life, which was a characteristic of a lot of people in the earlier seasons, especially the first season when the first alliance was made, people couldn't believe there would be a VOTING ALLIANCE!

Savage seems like an intensely loyal dude, and can't seem to wrap his head around the idea that Survivor is an individual game in which winners have to advance their own self interests. There's something admirable about that. It's a huge flaw in his gameplay, but it made him a really compelling character this season. One of the best characters this season, if I do say so myself.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Nov 19, '15, 8:25 am

Wiglesworth is out.

Meh.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Str8Shooter » Nov 19, '15, 10:26 am

Everlong wrote:Wiglesworth is out.

Meh.


Was she really that much of a threat that they needed to target her right away? I barely knew she was around.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Nov 19, '15, 12:56 pm

Str8Shooter wrote:
Everlong wrote:Wiglesworth is out.

Meh.


Was she really that much of a threat that they needed to target her right away? I barely knew she was around.


Well, they see a whole lot of stuff we don't. The fact that she apparently had good relationships with everyone definitely would make her a threat.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Ali » Nov 19, '15, 3:32 pm

"Wiglesworth is a threat because she's talking to and has good relationships with everybody!" Except the cameras, apparently.

I am really curious about how Stephen's going to use his advantage. I'm also curious to know, how is Jeremy going to lose? He has two idols, he's seen as the hero, everyone is already realizing how big of a threat he is... it seems too obvious that he's gonna win, doesn't it?
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Nov 20, '15, 11:40 am

Ali wrote:"Wiglesworth is a threat because she's talking to and has good relationships with everybody!" Except the cameras, apparently.


I mean, every time we DID hear her speak she had nothing interesting to say, so I can't say I blame them for underediting her.

Ali wrote:I am really curious about how Stephen's going to use his advantage. I'm also curious to know, how is Jeremy going to lose? He has two idols, he's seen as the hero, everyone is already realizing how big of a threat he is... it seems too obvious that he's gonna win, doesn't it?


Yeah, I had Jeremy at the top of my winners rankings until this week. Now it's almost starting to feel too inevitable, like it was with him in SJDS. Two idols is a huge coup, especially given they're secret, but he wouldn't be the first muscular black dude to be voted out with two idols in his pocket :P
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Ali » Nov 20, '15, 2:02 pm

Now I'm starting to wonder if Fishbach wins this season by voting Jeremy out at Final 4. The Wiglesworth blindside was really shown as being his move, and he has this advantage. It's still a tough road, and I don't know who Fish can bring along with him (maybe Abi and Kimmi?) in order to win the Jury Vote, but I can somehow see a way that Fishbach wins.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Dec 11, '15, 12:58 pm

This has been a hell of a season. What are your guys' predictions going into the final?

It really looks like it's Jeremy's game to lose, but I could see Spencer or Kelley taking it as well. Shocking that Kimmi is still around. And Keith is just hilarious. Tasha has no chance of winning now that Abi's gone.

Spencer made a seemingly dumb move opting to go with Jeremy and Tasha, but he can still take Jeremy out, bring Tasha to the end with him and one other person and still have a really good shot at winning. Spencer's playing so much of a better game this time around than he did in Cagayan, but Jeremy's quietly building a resume for a top 10 winner game if he pulls it off. Nobody's voted for him yet, he's had two idols and he's somehow managed to deflect ever being seen as a target despite being clearly the biggest threat to win on the island. Plus, he's never won immunity... he's accomplished it all through social game and strategy.

Jeremy earlier in the game said he wanted to be Stephen's JT, and while Stephen is no longer around, Jeremy is really playing a JT-style game.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Str8Shooter » Dec 11, '15, 4:15 pm

Yeah I think Jeremy, Spencer, and Kelley are the three front runners, which means I doubt we see all three of them at the end. I won't have a problem with any of them winning really.

The question is what the "big thing that's never happened before" that they were hyping in the teasers? One rumour I heard is that the next vote will have all the votes for either Jeremy or Kelley and both will play their idols, meaning no votes count. The other was it could be a 4 person final jury.

Should be a good finale though, I'm looking forward to it after a great season.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Dec 11, '15, 6:03 pm

Str8Shooter wrote:Yeah I think Jeremy, Spencer, and Kelley are the three front runners, which means I doubt we see all three of them at the end. I won't have a problem with any of them winning really.

The question is what the "big thing that's never happened before" that they were hyping in the teasers? One rumour I heard is that the next vote will have all the votes for either Jeremy or Kelley and both will play their idols, meaning no votes count. The other was it could be a 4 person final jury.

Should be a good finale though, I'm looking forward to it after a great season.



Big thing is almost definitely the both idols played, no votes counted. It's already confirmed that we have a 3 person FTC/10 person jury. Definitely gonna be interesting to see it play out though.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Str8Shooter » Dec 11, '15, 8:10 pm

Everlong wrote:
Str8Shooter wrote:Yeah I think Jeremy, Spencer, and Kelley are the three front runners, which means I doubt we see all three of them at the end. I won't have a problem with any of them winning really.

The question is what the "big thing that's never happened before" that they were hyping in the teasers? One rumour I heard is that the next vote will have all the votes for either Jeremy or Kelley and both will play their idols, meaning no votes count. The other was it could be a 4 person final jury.

Should be a good finale though, I'm looking forward to it after a great season.



Big thing is almost definitely the both idols played, no votes counted. It's already confirmed that we have a 3 person FTC/10 person jury. Definitely gonna be interesting to see it play out though.


So what happens if they both play them? Do they vote again with both of them out of it and the other three have vote for each other? That would be something.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Ali » Dec 11, '15, 10:55 pm

I think the re-vote will be a lot like a "drawn rocks" situation. Whoever wins immunity is safe, and the two idoled people are too. But instead of picking rocks, you revote for one of the three.

What if the "Never Happened Before" thing is a Winner Vote Tie?
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Str8Shooter » Dec 12, '15, 8:26 am

Ali wrote:What if the "Never Happened Before" thing is a Winner Vote Tie?


They all split the millions bucks!? :P

I have no idea what happens, they re-vote until someone on the jury changes their vote? They let the live crowd at the reunion vote for the winner?
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Ali » Dec 12, '15, 10:46 am

I have a solution.

For the sake of argument, let's say there is a Final Three with a jury of 10. The Final Three is Jeremy, Spencer, and Tasha. And we are deadlocked, 5 votes Jeremy, 5 votes Spencer, 0 votes Tasha.

To me, the obvious solution is, Third-placer Tasha effectively becomes a Jury member and the deciding vote. But how to reveal that without saying, "Okay, Tasha, you lost, so go pick who wins," basically spoiling things? Here's how we do it.

All Three Finalists get a vote. They can only vote between the other two. But the only vote that will COUNT is the third-place finisher's.

Do you think this would work?
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Str8Shooter » Dec 12, '15, 11:15 am

That sounds like as good of a solution as any.

But they wouldn't have to get that complex about it. They could draw all the votes on the live show and show the tie between Spencer and Jeremy, then just say, "Tasha will receive a piece of paper right now, and will write down the name of the person she thinks should be the winner". Then reveal the name. Great drama.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Ali » Dec 12, '15, 11:22 am

Yeah, but then that kind of takes the show's edit into account for Tasha, and that shouldn't be a factor. All voting should be done on the island, in the moment.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Dec 12, '15, 11:28 am

Well Jeff knows as soon as the vote happens who voted for who, that's how they get the votes in a great order to be read for TV. He could put the third placer on the jury in that moment, and keep the final vote a secret until the live reunion show.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Dec 13, '15, 11:38 am

Preview said there are four great tribal councils in the finale, so there's definitely no final four. Wondering how they'll fit all that in? I guess getting rid of Rites of Passage opens up some time. There probably won't be any more reward challenges either.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Ali » Dec 16, '15, 5:26 pm

So, we're about an hour and a half away from the finale, and so, I'm going to do a final ranking of the remaining players. This is not necessarily where I think they'll finish, but how likely I think it is that they will win.

6. Kimmi Kappenberg. The last old-school player left, and the only one of the Final 6 NOT to come from Cagayan or San Juan del Sur. Kimmi has had some moments, she did orchestrate the Monica blindside... but that's about it. We did see her talking about putting together her own women's alliance, but it didn't go anywhere. Honestly, Kimmi is hurt by there being no Russell or Boston Rob this season. There's no one that's really hated by the jury, so if Kimmi gets to the Final Three, everyone else just did more or is more well-liked. So, I don't see her winning at all.

5. Tasha Fox. This might be controversial, but I don't see how she wins. Tasha would theoretically have to go to the end with Kimmi and Keith to win, but she'd have to burn Jeremy and Spencer in the process, and I don't know that they'd appreciate that so much as a game maneuver, especially Jeremy. And Tasha does seem the like kind of person that might end up tanking a Jury performance by being kind of angry and flippant to jurors, especially someone like Kass or Abi. But if she sticks with her original plan, she'll still lose to Jeremy or Spencer, and Wentworth just did more, so... yeah.

4. Keith Nale. Once again, Keith can just play spoiler by bumbling his way to the Final Three via winning Immunity Challenges. If he wins out, he can have everyone else take out Jeremy, Spencer, and Wentworth, go to the Final Three with Kimmi and Tasha, and just go, "Well, shucks, I'm just a good-ol'-boy." Keith has not screwed anybody over, everybody loves hanging around with him, it'd be a very old school kind of win. That said, he can only truly beat Kimmi and he only beats Tasha if she screws up badly, but I still have him just barely winning that F3 scenario with the votes of Kass, Ciera, Joe, Abi, and maybe Fishbach, Jeremy, or Wentworth.

3. Spencer Bledsoe. The young lad has come a long way from Probst saying he had "0.0% chance of winning." And even though I question how much of a "superfan" he is, I can't deny that he has played a great game, and has avoided plenty of situations where he should have gone home. That being said, his game hinges on a bit more luck. He has to win the next challenge, prevent Jeremy from winning the final challenge, and get Jeremy voted out. He could also maybe TIE with Jeremy at a final vote, but that's very unlikely. Still, he has a shot to win, and he can't be counted out... unless he Fishbach's Final Tribal.

2. Kelley Wentworth. Now here's the real spoiler. Wentworth has played an excellent game, has a lot of friends on the Jury, a respectable resume of moves... there's not a whole lot going against her. She was always seen as one of the threats going in because no one saw much of her game in her first season, so she was the unknown factor. And she's played it up beautifully. Now, she IS a strategic threat in a sort-of minority alliance, so that is dangerous, but she has an idol that can theoretically get her to the Final Four. If she can make it, she could easily beat any of the final six, except...

1. Jeremy Collins. Wow, he has played a masterful game. He is well-liked by everyone, he's been the leader of his alliance, and somehow, his name has almost never come up as a voting possibility. People like Jeremy, they gravitate to him, they see him as a friend, a brother, a father figure to some. The only potential flaw in his game is that he probably has to win the Final Immunity Challenge, but maybe not. If his alliance with Tasha is as solid as it seems, he might win a fire-building tiebreaker. If he is in the Final Three, he wins. It's that simple.
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Re: Survivor: Second Chances

Postby Everlong » Dec 16, '15, 6:42 pm

I pretty much agree with that ranking entirely, except I think Spencer has a better chance of winning than Kelley IF he gets Jeremy out. I think there's a chance Kelley's game doesn't come across as well in person as it does on TV, because we've seen through confessionals and her idol hunts exactly what she's accomplished. That being said, if she has ANOTHER successful idol play tonight, that would add big time to her resume.

Still, it's going to be one of those top three. Of them, Jeremy will win if he makes FTC, but I think most of the people left realize that and are going to be smart enough to want to get rid of him. I don't see him getting to FTC if he's sitting at the final four without immunity, unless Spencer repeats the exact same mistake he lambasted Woo for a year and a half ago.
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