1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston, Quarterback, Florida State
Winston has managed to make it wire-to-wire as the near consensus top draft pick and while I’m not sure I agree with the consensus – I would be hard pressed to take Mariota if I were an NFL GM, but I can’t ignore that the consensus exists. Winston does come from a pro system. I do have concerns about his on-field decision making though. Either way he’ll go to the QB hungry Buccaneers.
2. Tennessee Titans – Marcus Mariota, Quarterback, Oregon
I’m not sure if the Titans will keep this pick or trade it, but whoever makes the second selection I’m positive that they will be taking Mariota. The Oregon quarterback is intelligent and a good decision maker. He’s also highly athletic and has the good build to last in the NFL. The Titans are QB hungry as well. Even if they may foolishly decide to trade down to a different QB hungry team.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Dante Fowler, Jr., EDGE, Florida
I agree with Dante Fowler, Jr. I’d be stunned if Fowler got past the Jaguars. They need to improve that front seven and the biggest impact they can make is by adding a big time pass rusher. Thanks to Randy Gregory and Shane Ray unequivocally failing the pre-draft process Fowler stands alone as the last and only elite pass rusher with a clean background that doesn’t give you pause about whether you can count on them being on the field each Sunday.
4. Oakland Raiders – Leonard Williams, Defensive Tackle, USC
I’m potentially giving the Oakland Raiders too much credit here, but I’m going to do it anyways. I think Oakland resists the urge to make an Oakland Raiders pick and take a wide receiver here. There’s a couple elite receivers here, but Leonard Williams is the best player in this draft and if he falls to four they should sprint to the podium to turn in this pick.
5. Washington Redskins – Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
The Redskins have a lot of needs, but chief among them is improving their defense. The fastest way to improve a defense is to give the opposing quarterback less time to throw the football. Vic Beasley gives them that as the best pass rusher left in the draft right now as a safe pick.
6. NY Jets – Amari Cooper, Wide Receiver, Alabama
The Jets have done a lot in free agency to straighten out their defensive deficiencies and they should have one of the better defenses in the league next year. Now they need to get the offense running as effective as possible. Geno Smith is a liability no matter what, but giving him an elite playmaker will help him progress as much as possible. If nothing else Cooper is a great distraction that will stop teams from loading the box against the run.
7. Chicago Bears – Kevin White, Wide Receiver, West Virginia
The Bears could easily go defense here, but I don’t love any of their options for them on that side of the ball. At the end of the day the Bears identity has changed somewhat and it can’t change back overnight. They need to keep building their offensive weapons and Kevin White will help them replace Brandon Marshall. I just think that Kevin White is the best player on the board at this point and without an easy match that’s one that I will take.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Bud Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky
Bud Dupree has been the big pre-draft process winner and he accomplished it by simply not doing much of anything. He probably started the process as the fifth or sixth best pass rusher. Gregory and Ray though have dropped beneath Dupree for me at this point. The Falcons need pass rush help and Dupree can help that.
9. NY Giants – Brandon Scherff, Offensive Guard, Iowa
The Giants need to help keep Eli Manning healthy as possible. Scherff is the best offensive lineman in this class and his versatility will help the Giants fill whatever they deem to be their weakest area of the line.
10. St. Louis Rams – Andrus Peat, Offensive Tackle, Stanford
I love linemen from Stanford. They just have a polished nastiness to them and are well coached. They also are efficient in the running game, which the Rams will need to improve if they are going to keep pace with the Seahawks and the Cardinals. Peat will help them and Nick Foles.
11. Minnesota Vikings – Trae Waynes, Cornerback, Michigan State
The Vikings have a young quarterback, they’ve got their star running back coming back. They’ve got some weapons in the passing game, although I’m sure they will add a receiver at some point, but it’s not really something they need to get in the first round. Getting a cornerback to help them cover Megatron, Jordy and Co.
12. Cleveland Browns – DeVante Parker, Wide Receiver, Louisville
Here’s a little tidbit, since returning in 1999 the Cleveland Browns have had just two winning seasons. In all those other losing seasons there’s one consistent trend. They’ve scored less than 20 points per game in each of those seasons. When they score points they win. They need receivers to improve their not good enough passing game. Parker is the last of the big 3 receivers and the Browns really need to attract that guy.
13. New Orleans Saints – Randy Gregory, EDGE, Nebraska
The Saints end Randy Gregory’s slide pretty quickly. Ultimately he’s too talented to fall too far. The only thing New Orleans needs to worry about is whether he loves football or marijuana more. Because he’s likely going to have to give up one to keep doing the other.
14. Miami Dolphins – Melvin Gordon III, Running Back, Wisconsin
Melvin Gordon becomes the first running back since Trent Richardson to be taken in the first round. Gordon is a much better explosive playmaker and game changer. There will be a lot of talk about Gurley vs Gordon, but to me a running back’s career in the NFL is so short already that to take one that has already had an ACL injury in the first round is a big risk. It’s too big of a risk when you consider that there’s another almost equal alternative on the board for a team to take. The Dolphins need to improve their running game and Gordon should get that done for them.
15. San Francisco 49ers – Arik Armstead, Defensive Tackle, Oregon
So in building this mock draft I looked at my own knowledge of teams and prospects first and foremost, but I also did look at other mock drafts to see if there are any strong trends that people think teams will do. Nearly everyone thought that Armstead would be the pick. That unanimous of a selection is rare in the middle of the first round. I won’t buck the trend. Armstead is a physical freak and will be a lot for offensive linemen have to handle.
16. Houston Texans – Breshad Perriman, Wide Receiver, Central Florida
Perriman is climbing draft boards because of his physical skills. The only reason I kept him as the fourth receiver off the board is simply because you have to question his hands more than the top three picks. Perriman will help give the Texans offense and undoubted vertical element that they need to take things to the next level.
17. San Diego Chargers – Todd Gurley, Running Back, Georgia
Gurley lands here at the Chargers to replace Ryan Matthews. Especially with Phillip Rivers long term time in San Diego being in question, a stronger emphasis on running the football. Gurley could go off the board where Gordon did, if that’s the case then I would expect Gordon to land here still. The resurgence of the running back continues for one night anyways.
18. KC Chiefs – La’el Collins, Offensive Tackle, LSU
I really don’t know what to make of the news regarding La’el Collins and I find him harder to slot than any of the other “troubled” prospects in this class. Still, without concrete evidence of a problem for him or being named an actual suspect I think he stays in the first round. He’s a quality offensive lineman and will help the Chiefs beef up their trenches.
19. Cleveland Browns – Danny Shelton, Defensive Tackle, Washington
I think Danny Shelton is falling more than any other prospect. He’s definitely a great run stuffer, but if he’s not more than that and he’s only a two down player primarily he won’t be a top 10 or even top 15 pick. The Browns need a run stuffer though and if they can get Shelton here he’s a great fit for them. If he doesn’t fall here there’s other defensive tackles that can stop the run to be had.
20. Philadelphia Eagles – Byron Jones, Cornerback, UCONN
The Eagles secondary is a serious weakness and short of a trade up to get Mariota getting a big, fast, athletic corner to help play better defense. This is sort of an unpopular pick for people because Chip Kelly is so offensively minded.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Malcom Brown, Defensive Tackle, Texas
The Bengals would ideally like to have a pass rusher fall to them, but there’s just not one I like for them at this spot. They still get a defensive lineman that’s got a little versatility. Brown’s primarily a run stopper, but he’s got a little bit of big play ability to him as well. Marvin Lewis will be able to get the most out of him.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Marcus Peters, Cornerback, Washington
Peters is a talented playmaker that has a lot of question marks about his attitude and other things. The Steelers are stable organization that can get the most out of a player like Peters. They also need a lot of defensive help.
23. Detroit Lions – Eddie Goldman, Defensive Tackle, Florida State
The Lions need to replenish their defensive front and keep the focus on what they’ve developed as the team strength. Goldman goes a long way to helping them minimize the loss of Suh. Goldman is one of the more underrated first round talents that will be selected Thursday and his playmaking ability in the run and pass games should help the Lions.
24. Arizona Cardinals – Shane Ray, EDGE, Mizzou
And Ray has stopped dropping as the Cardinals beef up their excellent defense with a pass rusher that will get after Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson. Ray’s only question for me is a combination of his desire to play the game and whether he’ll have NFL size at outside linebacker.
25. Carolina Panthers – DJ Humphries, Offensive Tackle, Florida
The Panthers absolutely have to get an offensive tackle in this draft or Cam Newton should file a complaint for a hazardous work environment. Humphries is the best offensive tackle left on the board so that’s an easy pick for me to make.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Phillip Dorsett, Wide Receiver, Miami
The Ravens need more playmakers on offense and Dorsett is that. He’s more of a slot receiver than a guy that can dominate on the outside, but he can still be schemed into space and be a serious threat to defenses that can get behind them and take the ball to the end zone on any play.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Kevin Johnson, Cornerback, Wake Forest
The Cowboys would prefer that a running back falls to them I believe, but Gordon and Gurley will be long gone. Therefore, they need to fix their leaky defense and specifically secondary. Johnson isn’t an elite prospect, but he should still offer an upgrade at corner for them.
28. Denver Broncos – Cameron Erving, Center, Florida State
The Broncos could use an interior lineman to help protect Peyton Manning and also to implement Gary Kubiak’s zone blockings scheme in the running game. Erving is a supremely athletic guy who can move all over the line. He’ll start at guard or maybe center, but who know where he could eventually move to.
29. Indianapolis Colts – Landon Collins, Safety, Alabama
Collins will help the Colts get tougher on defense. He’s primarily a safety that plays better closer to the line of scrimmage, but when you look at the teams in the division odds are that their opponents in the AFC South will be running the ball a lot next season.
30. Green Bay Packers – Jordan Phillips, Defensive Tackle, Oklahoma
Phillips will beef up the Packers defensive line and help them improve a defense that will give them a leg up on Seattle and Detroit. Green Bay already have a superior offense, if they can bring their defense near that level of those two teams they will be unstoppable in the NFC. Fix the defense should be the priority this year.
31. New Orleans Saints – Eli Harold, EDGE, Virginia
Harold is an intriguing prospect. He’s a versatile guy that could get moved around a lot. The scary thing about him is whether he can find a home. After getting a pure edge rusher in Gregory early in the draft, they double up on Harold who can play in the weakside middle or maybe even as an extra safety at times in their defense.
32. New England Patriots – Laken Tomlinson, Offensive Guard, Duke
The Patriots need to beef up their interior offensive line and after Scherff and Erving Tomlinson is the next best option. He’s a smart and skilled player who Bill Belichick should be able to get a lot out of throughout his career.