Week 6 already, and things are beginning to shape around the league. Some forces from last year have stumbled hard out of the gate, Carolina and Arizona in particular, while others have emerged as surprise contenders (Atlanta, Minnesota). Meanwhile, Tom Brady is back terrorizing defenses once again.
Here are this week’s picks:
GAME OF THE WEEK – Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1), GB by 4 – This is going to be a really interesting game. Strength versus strength pits the NFL’s top rushing offense in Dallas against its top rushing defense in Green Bay. The Packers are currently allowing less than two yards per carry, which puts them on pace to demolish the single-season record (obviously there’s a long way to go). Meanwhile, the Packers’ anemic passing game needs to be able to get past a Dallas secondary that’s played well in the last couple weeks, especially Mo Claiborne. The Packers have the edge of being at home and having a more experience roster, but expect a firm challenge from Dallas in what’s the toughest game they’ve had on their schedule so far. Packers 27, Cowboys 23
THURSDAY NIGHT – Denver Broncos (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-4), DEN by 3 – Here’s a great stat for you… according to peak win probability, the chance that the Chargers would be 1-4 right now is something like one in 32 million. These Chargers just find a way to lose. They won’t need to choke it away this week, though, as the Broncos will have the game in hand from early on. Broncos 27, Chargers 10
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at New England Patriots (4-1), NE by 9 – The Bengals just aren’t living up to expectations this year. Their brutal opening stretch continues on the road against the recently returned Tom Brady and revitalized Gronk. The Patriots with a win will put the Bengals in a hole that’s going to be really hard to crawl out of, especially with plenty of other teams in the AFC vying for playoff spots in an improving conference this year. Patriots 33, Bengals 20
Carolina Panthers (1-4) at New Orleans Saints (1-3), CAR by 3 – The fight for the bottom of the NFC South is on. The Panthers should have been able to beat Tampa even without Cam Newton. With Cam back against the league’s worst defense, I think they can at least notch another one in the W column. Panthers 30, Saints 27
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-4), PIT by 7.5 – The Dolphins could very well be the worst team in an NFL that includes the Cleveland Browns. There’s just absolutely no life on this team at all. Sad. Steelers 34, Dolphins 10
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3), NYG by 3- The Giants look like they had no interest in playing football on Sunday. The Ravens aren't a powerhouse, but they at least have some fire, which looks to be missing from this Giants team. UPSET! - Ravens 20, Giants 16
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4), CHI by 2.5 – Brian Hoyer has played alright for the Bears in Cutler’s absence, and they nearly went on the road to take out the Colts. But after giving up a late lead, and playing a hungry Jaguars team coming off a rest, I’ll take the upset. UPSET!- Jaguars 27, Bears 19
San Francisco 49ers (1-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-2), BUF by 8 - The Bills have responded nicely to an 0-2 start, and now get to play one of the league’s worst teams at home. Another win, and all that early season talk of firing Rex Ryan will start to seem like a distant memory. But of course, his job will be questioned until the Bills get into the postseason. Bills 31, 49ers 13
Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Detroit Lions (2-3), DET by 3.5 – Fresh off an upset against the Eagles, the Lions have to be feeling a bit more confident. The Rams have a solid defense, but they never play well against competition from outside their own division. This is a great shot for the Lions to get back to .500. Lions 20, Rams 13
Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-3), TEN by 7 – The Browns have had the absolute worst luck with quarterbacks this season, and that’s saying something by their standards. I’m not picking Cleveland to win a game this year. Titans 24, Browns 13
Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Washington Redskins (3-2), PHI by 2 – The Eagles’ 3-0 start definitely seemed too good to be true. Now they’re going on the road to play against the defending NFC East champs for the first time this year. The Redskins showed some gumption in a road win against a decent Baltimore team, but divisional battles are always another beast. Against my better judgment, I’m going to go with Washington to get an extremely important home win in a crowded NFC East. UPSET! – Redskins 20, Eagles 17
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-1), OAK by 1 – If the playoffs began today, the Oakland Raiders would be the top seed in the AFC. Crazy, right? This is their first 4-1 start since 2002, the last year they went to the Playoffs and the year they lost the Super Bowl to Tampa. They’ve got a tough task ahead of them against a rested Chiefs team, however. Andy Reid is historically great at preparing his team for victory after the bye. As much as I want to see Oakland continue to grind out wins, something tells me this is a Chiefs team that’s ready to get an important win. UPSET!- Chiefs 28, Raiders 27
[b]Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1), SEA by 6 – This should be another really interesting game amidst a slew of outstanding matchups this week. The Falcons went on the road and beat a similar team in Denver (albeit a better defense), but Seattle has a better offense (when up to potential) and a stronger homefield advantage. With Seattle coming off a rest and the Falcons straight off an emotional victory/upset over the defending champs, seems reasonable to expect Seattle to win. Seahawks 24, Falcons 20
Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Houston Texans (3-2), HOU by 3 – Brock Osweiler is fucking bad. But so are the Colts. I dunno, this is a tough one for me, but the Texans just don’t seem like they’re going to be a playoff team this year. UPSET! – Colts 31, Texans 20
New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3), ARZ by 8- Two teams that have come nowhere close to living up to their preseason hype. The Cardinals though are playing at home and are a significantly more talented team. They should get back to .500 and continue their turnaround. Cardinals 27, Jets 17
BYES: Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
