We’ve made it through one quarter of the regular season, and there are certainly plenty of surprises. Arizona and St. Louis, er, Los Angeles, are basically in opposite places of what you’d expect. The Eagles are one of three unbeaten teams, as are the Petersonless, Bridgewaterless Vikings.
This week sees the return of Tom Brady, a whole bunch of interconference matchups, and a Sunday Night game that conflicts with the second presidential debate (who the fuck thought that was a good idea?). Here we go!
GAME OF THE WEEK – Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0), DEN by 6 – This is the epitome of a strength versus strength matchup, here. The Falcons have been playing out of their minds offensively this year, with both Matt Ryan and Julio Jones looking like early-season MVP candidates. And of course, the Broncos most likely have the very best defense in the business, and have done a number on all opposing quarterbacks they’ve faced stretching back to the latter part of last season. Going to be fascinating to see what happens here. But if history tells us anything, it’s that the Broncos’ defense trumps high-caliber passing offenses. Broncos 23, Falcons 20
THURSDAY NIGHT – Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3), ARZ by 4.5 – Who’d have thought the Cardinals would be playing to stay out of last place in the division after four weeks of the season? That’s exactly what this game is. The 49ers are both banged up and offensively neutered, so as poorly as the Cardinals are playing, this one just seems like a gimme. Cardinals 27, 49ers 6
Houston Texans (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-0), MIN by 6 – Houston may be 3-1, but they simply don’t have the mettle or team makeup it takes to get past a squad as tough as the Vikings, especially on the road. Vikings 20, Texans 9
Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3), MIA by 3.5 – These two teams are already playing for nothing more than draft position. The Dolphins are a hot mess, but they’ve got more talent and better coaching than the Titans, who have zero stars and, by winning percentage, the second-worst coach in the history of the NFL. Dolphins 20, Titans 13
New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4), NE by 10.5 – As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Browns, they now get a date against the Patriots in Tom Brady’s first game back. The Patriots are going to be going balls to the wall from this point throughout the rest of the season as a “fuck you” to Roger Goodell in particular, and the poor Browns are the first victim. Patriots 37, Browns 10
New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1), PIT by 7 – After a shockingly poor showing against the Eagles, the Steelers rebounded and showed why they’re going to be a force to be reckoned with all season long. They should have no trouble with the Jets at home, given how keen the Jets seem to be on turning the ball over. Steelers 30, Jets 16
Washington Redskins (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1), BAL by 4 – This is a tough one to call. On the one hand, the Ravens have played better ball than expected this season, and they’re at home. On the other hand, the Redskins are making a very short trip for this game, and have started to see their offense coming to life. But on the other other hand, this is a Redskins team that needed a RIDICULOUSLY bad fumble call on Duke Johnson to get past the lowly Browns. I’ll take the home team. Ravens 23, Redskins 17
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3), PHI by 3 – Yikes. So much for the offensive promise showed by the Lions against the Colts and Packers. That was an ugly display against Chicago, and it gets worse against a defense in Philadelphia that is playing with a chip on its shoulder. EDIT: Decided to change this pick. Something about it screams upset, and the Eagles still haven't sold me. UPSET! - Lions 23, Eagles 17
Chicago Bears (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3), IND by 4.5 – I’ll never understand how this Colts team is able to underachieve the way it does year in and year out. They’ll pick up a victory here, but it won’t do a whole lot to quell the rising concern among Indy loyalists. Colts 23, Bears 10
Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1), LA by 2.5 – The Rams are one of the biggest surprises of the season so far. The Bills are coming off big back-to-back victories against two teams that were thought to be Super Bowl favorites this year… even if one was starting its third-string QB. This seems like prime upset territory, as the Rams tend to struggle against any competition from outside the NFC West. UPSET! – Bills 20, Rams 17
San Diego Chargers (1-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-1), OAK by 4 – The Chargers are better than any team I’ve ever seen at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. This one will be close, as divisional games are, but the Raiders are simply playing really good football and cranking out close wins, like good teams do. Raiders 31, Chargers 24
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1), CIN by 1 – The Bengals didn’t have to do a whole lot to take care of business against the Dolphins. Now, after a bit of extra rest from the Thursday night game, they travel to play a Cowboys team that is certainly building some confidence. Still, the Cowboys aren’t exactly a force at home, and their wins have come against mediocre competition at best. The Bengals are too good to lose this one. Bengals 23, Cowboys 14
New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1), GB by 7 – Expect to see the Packers’ tattered secondary give up a shit ton of yards to ODB and Sterling Shephard. But with the Packers playing at home and in must-win position to keep up with the Vikings, they should be able to survive this one. Packers 27, Giants 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-3), CAR by 6 – I’m tempted to pick the Bucs here, because the Panthers have looked so freaking bad. But I’m going to give them one more week to show me what they got. Panthers 24, Bucs 13
BYES: Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks
