Think about it;
Without a quarterback, is there really any reason to consider the Broncos a threat? They still have an outstanding defense, but no real offense to speak of. They might squeak into the playoffs, but I don't think anyone is concerned about them being a huge threat to get to the Super Bowl.
The Bengals have still never won a playoff game with Marvin Lewis or Andy Dalton despite five tries in a row against relatively weak competition. Is there any reason to expect they can suddenly figure it out?
The Raiders aren't there quite yet, even if they're building the young nucleus they need.
The Steelers might just be able to push themselves there even if they're not up to the standard of their other recent Super Bowl teams, simply because they have a QB advantage and jus tknow how to scrape out postseason victories.
The Patriots still have a better chance than anybody even though Brady is going to be out the first four weeks. It's basically their AFC to lose this year.