GAME OF THE WEEK – New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3), IND by 3 – Always a solid affair any time these two teams get together, and the interest is definitely heightened by it being held in Indianapolis. This feels like the kind of game where the Colts could come out and surprise a lot of people. However, I have a lot more trust in the Patriots to play mistake-free football in a big-game situation than I do the Colts, and I have a feeling this game is going to come down to turnovers. UPSET! – Patriots 24, Colts 20
THURSDAY NIGHT - Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4), MIA by 5.5 – This is an extremely important game. Whoever loses this one is likely out of the playoff race in a very tight AFC picture, or will at least have to have a miraculous end to their season to get in. The Dolphins have played two tough teams in the Packers and Lions very close and have done so more recently than the Bills, who are still playing tough but are much more flawed. Playing in the Miami heat, I like the Dolphins to take this one and keep their wild card hopes alive. Dolphins 27, Bills 20
Houston Texans (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-3), CLE by 3 – Call me a pessimist, but this just seems like a game that the Browns would lose. Coming off a mini-bye and a big victory, holding first place in the division alone for the first time in 20ish years… it’s just setting up for a big letdown in Cleveland. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the Browns keep their winning ways going, but it’s hard to put a ton of faith into a franchise with such a bungling history. EDIT: Changing my mind with Arian Foster being out.Browns 27, Texans 10
Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-6), CHI by 3 – Look, the Bears have basically given up on the season. It has shown in their last couple games. But can they really be so far gone as to have three hugely disappointing losses in a row, and this one coming at home against a mediocre Vikings team? I mean yeah, of course they can, it’s the bears. But I have a feeling they have one or two last gasps in them before tanking the rest of the season. Bears 27, Vikings 23
Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3), GB by 5.5 – Another hugely important matchup with playoff implications. The Packers need every win they can get to keep pace with Detroit, as the Lions look like they’re a different team this year and may not collapse after all. They also need victories to keep pace in the wild card race, which they’re currently losing to Seattle and Dallas. Both teams just dismantled their opponents, but playing against each other… different story. The Packers have had the best homefield advantage in the NFL this year based on points per game at home, and I’d look for that to continue. Hard for me to believe Mark Sanchez strings together two solid games, and he’ll need to do exactly that if the Eagles want to come away with a victory in this one. Packers 33, Eagles 26
Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-3), KC by 1.5 – Yet another big game this week. You could pretty much put in what I wrote for Phily/GB here… both teams need wins to keep pace in the wild card race in their respective conferences, or to have a shot at a division title. However, the Chiefs might be the hottest team in the NFL right now, and are flying way under the radar. Playing at home in Arrowhead against a Seahawks team that hasn’t traveled very well this year, I like them to pick up a victory. Chiefs 27, Seahawks 23
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (3-6-1), CAR by 1.5 - As bad as the Falcons have been this season, there’s basically no reason to think they can’t handle a Panthers team that looks like an absolute joke. The Panthers are playing down to the level of Jacksonville and Oakland right now. UPSET! – Falcons 26, Panthers 13
Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-5), NO by 6.5 – Once again, I’m going to bank on the Saints’ homefield advantage to earn them this victory, even though it wasn’t a tremendous help against San Francisco. The Bengals have started to come apart at the seams, and I see that continuing at least this week. Saints 34, Bengals 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6), WAS by 7- Two years ago, the Redskins were 3-6 and won their final 7 to get to the playoffs. Will that happen this year? Pff, nah. But they’ll still handle the Bucs at home. Redskins 24, Bucs 16
Denver Broncos (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-6), DEN by 9.5 – The Rams are only competitive with teams from inside their division for some reason. Broncos will roll. Broncos 42, Rams 10
San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6), SF by 4 – The Giants started off well against the Seahawks last week, but that run defense basically cost them the game. The 49ers will be able to exploit the same weakness and take the Giants to the woodshed with their ground and pound game. Niners 24, Giants 17
Oakland Raiders (0-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-4), SD by 10 – Exactly the kind of game the Chargers need to get things moving for their final seven games as they try to get back to the postseason. Chargers 34, Raiders 17
Detroit Lions (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1), ARZ by 1.5 – Would have been my game of the week had Carson Palmer not gone down with an injury. The Lions and Cardinals playing for NFC supremacy in week 11… who’da thunk it? I have to say, the Lions have played some extremely gritty football. They’re just as close to 4-5 as they are to 8-1 with all their last-minute comebacks, but those comebacks show that this team has a whole lot of heart. Drew Stanton has proven himself to be a capable backup for the Cardinals and they’re not to be underestimated just because Palmer has gone down. This is going to be a hard fought matchup, but with the Lions playing at closer to full strength I give them the edge. UPSET! – Lions 23, Cardinals 20
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-7), PIT by 5.5 – The Steelers have an awful track record recently against bad teams, but I wouldn’t expect them to bomb two weeks in a row. They’ll take this one and remain in the hunt in the AFC north. Steelers 24, Titans 6
BYES: Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets
