Donald Trump is going to be the next president

[Everlong]

I severely hope I'm wrong, but you heard it here first.

Just a couple weeks ago fivethirtyeight was giving HIllary an 85 percent chance of taking the election. It's down to 65 percent and dropping fast. I don't know how, I don't know why, but Trump is gaining fast, and he's still got five days left to make up the ground. Plus, Democratic voters are way more prone to becoming complacent and not turning up to the polls on election day.

I think Donald Trump is going to be our next president. Which means it will be time for me to seriously consider leaving the country.

[Messiah]

Not that I want Trump to win, but I would take a wait and see approach. It's possible a Trump win would just result in 4 years of stalemate between him and congress. Which isn't good, but would probably prevent an all-out train-wreck.

[Str8Shooter]

May God have mercy on your souls.

[DBSoT]

I still don't buy it. Trump is still losing basically every major state and is likely to lose the always Red state of Utah to Evan McMullin.

Take a look at the below battleground.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -forecast/

That map shows that even with Clinton in a tight race in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, she is still at 292. This map also show Trump winning in Utah, but I have my doubts about that as well, because the polling for McMullin has been flawed. When they poll people about the election in Utah, the name McMullin isn't always used by the pollsters. It skews the results. See the article below. So Trump's 65% is actually closer to 30% or lower with McMullin right on his tail by as far as 3 percentage points.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pol ... s-in-utah/

@Everlong, you are correct about voter turnout being lower for Liberal voters. There many reasons for that, but that is a whole nother discussion. If the possibility of Donald Trump being president doesn't make people want to vote then I really don't know what will.

[The Legend]

Not that I want Trump to win, but I would take a wait and see approach. It's possible a Trump win would just result in 4 years of stalemate between him and congress. Which isn't good, but would probably prevent an all-out train-wreck.

If Trump wins, it also means the Republican party gains an even larger advantage in Congress. They may shy away from his more blunt and oblivious ramblings, but the Republican Party still in large part stands for what Trump stands for. It won't be a stalemate and it certainly won't be good for the average American.

[AkydefGoldberg]

IDK why but there's a little part of me for some reason that envisages the out-right shock around the world if Trump pulls it off which thinking about it practically and pragmatically, I think Clinton will still win.

I just don't see Trump having gained so much in so little time from where he was and it will be a case of people not voting against him that might see him land the top job.

If he wins the presidency, I don't see him seeing out a term - the shitload of stories from his past (saw an alleged victim claiming rape against him) might see him leave the office far worse than Nixon did!

[Ali]

As much as 538 and Nate Silver's models had been a harbinger of things in the last election, I feel like there might be a bit of overcompensation here. He consistently wrote off Trump in the primaries, and doesn't want to deny that possibility of him winning the general, so his model gives more leeway for Trump.

Here's the other thing i have personally noticed, and do not see an explanation for... Trump's rise in the polls began AFTER Early Voting did, and there were record numbers for early voting in states like Nevada and Florida. One exit poll of early voters in Florida showed that as much as 28% of registered Republicans voted for Hillary. This might be off, or an exaggeration, but it got me thinking, how much does Early Voting affect Polling? Do the people that voted early stop answering polls? What's the data there?

To add to this, I give you this quote from Ed Goeas, a GOP pollster in Washington.

“The thing about polling is: Polling assumes both campaigns are equal. You look at quality of surrogates, money raised, ground game — she has an advantage in all that. So you basically have to look at the polling and say it reflects the worst-case scenario for her.”

Hillary's lead is not completely safe, but it feels like there are a lot more ways for her to win than there are for her to lose.

All that being said, GO OUT AND VOTE. I did. If you feel at all nervous, or at all safe, MAKE YOUR VOICE HEARD.

[Suit&Tie]

My name is Donald J. Trump and I am proud to accept Tim’s endorsement for President of the United States. What a tremendous guy! Don’t I always say that? Fantastic guy. I have a great relationship with the Tims. I’ve been endorsed by thousands and thousands of Tims. Thousands – and by the way, let me tell you, you take a look at all the polls, we’re winning bigly. In hundreds of states we’re winning bigly. Don’t look at the other polls, they’re rigged. VaderBomb rigged them. But I guarantee – when I win we’re going to make SquaredCircle Great Again. We’re going to Make SquaredCircle Safe Again. I’m going to build the firewall and keep those Russians out, that I can tell you.

If I don’t win this election, I will consider it a total and complete waste of time, energy, money, and memes.

[DBSoT]

^ After Trump loses, I am going to miss this account.

[SlightlyJames]

^ After Trump loses, I am going to miss this account.

He'll probably go back to being a lawyer after the election.

[PorkChop]

Regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, I think the damage has already been done.

It's a lot like Brexit really. Trump's predidential campaign and the Leave campaign over here brought out the worst in a shockingly large percentage of the population. Racial tensions and Islamophobia seem to be the most prevalent they've been for years, and whatever the result of the election, it will only continue to get stronger and more commonplace in society.

There was so much fear-mongering, racism, prejudice and lies which fuelled the voters of the Leave campaign. I might sound bitter, but it's true - they just had to keep repeating "Take back control" (the UK's version of "Make America Great Again") and make foreigners the bogeymen in order to get the vote. Unfortunately, those attitudes prevailed when it mattered, and the Leave campaign were victorious. I can only hope America doesn't follow suit and more rational heads will prevail, but regardless, we're at the point now where shit's going to hit the fan whether Trump wins or loses. It won't be pretty.

[Everlong]

Regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, I think the damage has already been done.

It's a lot like Brexit really. Trump's predidential campaign and the Leave campaign over here brought out the worst in a shockingly large percentage of the population. Racial tensions and Islamophobia seem to be the most prevalent they've been for years, and whatever the result of the election, it will only continue to get stronger and more commonplace in society.

There was so much fear-mongering, racism, prejudice and lies which fuelled the voters of the Leave campaign. I might sound bitter, but it's true - they just had to keep repeating "Take back control" (the UK's version of "Make America Great Again") and make foreigners the bogeymen in order to get the vote. Unfortunately, those attitudes prevailed when it mattered, and the Leave campaign were victorious. I can only hope America doesn't follow suit and more rational heads will prevail, but regardless, we're at the point now where shit's going to hit the fan whether Trump wins or loses. It won't be pretty.

This is basically my exact feeling. The scariest thing is that even after Trump fucks off after his campaign, he's still given a voice to a terrible subset of people.

[DBSoT]

^Your both right. The worst this Trump is currently doing is perpetuating the idea of bias. He is infusing his base with the idea that the elections are rigged against them. That is scary because when Trump loses, his supporters will feel like it was a giant conspiracy. Leading to protests, possible physical alterations and further belief that Trump is some kind of outsider.

This video perfectly sums up the Trump candidacy and where his supporters anger comes from.

[Hanley!]

The other scary thing is that even if Clinton wins, she's going to be one of the least popular presidents of all time, and the Republicans will probably beat her in the next election if they have their shit together at all. Which means 4 years from now America will probably have a President who's just as hateful and dangerous as Donald Trump, but more competent.

What the fuck is happening?

[KaiserGlider]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/pre ... al-twitter

Donald Trump's press aides have revoked access to his Twitter account, a new report claims, as the GOP nominee tries to stay on message for the campaign's final stretch.

Oh shit. Hillary's done.

[Hanley!]

Fix it, America.

[DBSoT]

I am willing to bet at least one large shooting breaks out at a voting location tomorrow. Brawls are very likely, with rioting also being a strong possibility. This whole election has been a massive disaster, why not complete the circle of suck with the worst election day in history.

[Hanley!]

I am willing to bet at least one large shooting breaks out at a polling station tomorrow. Brawls are very likely, with rioting also being a strong possibility. This whole election has been a massive disaster, why not complete the circle of suck with the worst election day in history.

Would not surprise me at all at this point.

[Chewy]

Well there were plenty folk out at Raleigh, North Carolina today. Took in the atmosphere as I purchased my Trump bobble head and Coffee mug.

[Messiah]

Well there were plenty folk out at Raleigh, North Carolina today. Took in the atmosphere as I purchased my Trump bobble head and Coffee mug.

I may have spotted Chewy today.