Why does everyone seem to believe Shane is a lock to win?

[Everlong]

Granted, I haven't followed too closely the last few weeks to know exactly what's going on, but based on Roundtable predictions and other stuff I've read, people are practically guaranteeing a Shane win.

I guess I don't see it. Do we really think Shane is around long-term? Moreover, do we really think this will be Undertaker's last match? I guess this wouldn't be the first time someone lost a match with their career on the line only to come back, but I also really have a hard time believing Taker would suddenly drop 2 Mania matches within 3 years.

[The Legend]

Granted, I haven't followed too closely the last few weeks to know exactly what's going on, but based on Roundtable predictions and other stuff I've read, people are practically guaranteeing a Shane win.

I guess I don't see it. Do we really think Shane is around long-term? Moreover, do we really think this will be Undertaker's last match? I guess this wouldn't be the first time someone lost a match with their career on the line only to come back, but I also really have a hard time believing Taker would suddenly drop 2 Mania matches within 3 years.

As for the Taker last match thing, I don't know any possible year could be the last time he steps in the ring. It seems harder and harder for him to recover physically from his one match a year. As hard as it is to imagine the day that Taker never wrestles again, Father Time is undefeated.

Also, as you say Taker could always find a way back in. One easy way is Vince says this will be Taker's last match if he loses, but Vince won't be in charge to enforce that if Taker loses. So Shane could invite him back for another match.

But also, there's something poetic about Taker losing here and this being his retirement match, it's hard to imagine a scenario with higher stakes for a Taker match in the future so this might be the best opportunity for a retirement match for Taker.

Also, once Taker lost once the only thing I couldn't imagine is him losing twice in a row, once he won last year all bets were off.

Finally, whether Shane will be around or not is an easy work around. He'll obviously be in town for the next night's RAW and possibly a few more after that. Whenever he's done Shane just names a proxy to run RAW for him, a new GM if you will and then only has to show up once or twice a year.

I guess ultimately the reason I believe Shane will win is every Mania gets remembered for something, and something that happens at Mania shapes the product moving forward in some way for at least a few months after that night. There's not that many spots on the card this year that can make that kind of impact. If Taker wins and its business as usual afterwards this Mania will likely be remembered for Roman being booed out of the building and being a face champion that gets even worse reception than Cena ever did and I can't see WWE being stupid enough to let that be the lone lasting memory and legacy of the show.

[Twister]

I do not believe Shane will win but then again I am a huge 'Taker mark. I'm still in denial about the streak ending, so there you go.

[KaiserGlider]

Shane winning would be what makes everyone happy. Where do we go if Taker wins? It would just kill all the buzz about Shane taking over Raw and making changes to what almost everyone sees as a stale show. They've announced multiple things happening if Shane were to win, but nothing happening if Taker wins. Plus, the fact that this match takes place in an arena Taker could realistically have his final match in makes it more believable than it could actually be his last match at Wrestlemania. I definitely don't want Taker having another loss at Mania, but it would be for the greater good.

It's also very likely that Shane is just there to boost the buyrate and give Taker an opponent, then disappear. I picked Shane in the roundtable cause it would be better for the storyline, but I'm not totally sure anymore.

[AkydefGoldberg]

Idea suggested that Shane wins as part of Vince's plan to rid Taker forever? But that'd be random which means there's a big chance it happens!

[Stvtayl]

If Taker loses, the stipulation is that will be Takers last Wrestlemania match.

They are advertising Taker coming to perform in the UK, when their Live shows are here again like crazy.

I'm just hoping for realism sake, that something happens causing Taker to lose, interference or something, because I cannot believe that Shane can do in a Hell in a Cell match something that HHH couldn't even with help from HBK and his sledgehammer

[SlightlyJames]

The fact that Vince said Taker is done at Mania if he loses means nothing since Vince doesn't have power in that event anyway. Pretty stupid stipulation really. The reason I think Shane is winning is because if he doesn't it's just Shane getting his ass kicked in a Cell for half an hour. I don't doubt that his victory will be contrived (likely Vince getting in Takers face when Shane is holding on, Taker decides to fuck Vince and throw the match) but I find it hard to believe he won't be winning.

[Hanley!]

If Shane McMahon wins there are exciting consequences. If Undertaker wins the status quo is maintained.

A few years ago, that alone would tell you that Undertaker would win the match. In order to preserve the status quo. But that's not the way things work anymore. Since about 2010, they've taken a different approach for this kind of big stipulation match: the more exciting result that challenges the status quo is always the one they give us now. But then they won't actually honour the stipulation ... at least not for more than a couple of weeks. They give us a result that tells us that everything is changing to get a big pop, but then nothing actually changes.

This has happened a bunch of times in the last few years:
- If Cena loses he has to join the Nexus ... Cena does lose, but remains fighting with the Nexus with no change
- If Wade Barrett doesn't win, Cena is fired ... Wade Barrett loses but Cena isn't fired
- If CM Punk wins, Cena is fired ... Punk does win, Cena isn't fired
- If CM Punk wins, he'll leave with the title ... a week later he's back and so is the title
- If Team Authority loses, the Authority forfeit control of Raw ... Team Authority does lose, they gain control back three weeks later

So my prediction is that Shane wins tonight, but that he won't take control of Raw in the long term, and it won't be Undertaker's last Wrestlemania either.